11 By one estimate, the number of people likely to be infected with the virus after encountering an infected individual declined by 55% after 1 week of shutdown in Wuhan, China. 10 Several studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of social distancing and other quarantine measures in tandem with a rapid scale-up of SARS-CoV-2 testing. To mitigate the spread of COVID-19, the majority of African countries reduced or banned international travel and instituted curfews, lockdowns and other social distancing interventions beginning in March and April 2020. 6 Other prevalent comorbidities include HIV, for which many patients are receiving antiretroviral therapy, and malnutrition, in addition to other communicable and noncommunicable diseases. In 2016, 417 000 people died from tuberculosis (TB) in the African region, where 25% of the world’s TB deaths occur. 5 However, these populations may also be at particular risk for high morbidity and mortality from COVID-19 given the high prevalence of immunocompromised individuals. 3 4 Approximately 75% of the African population is less than 35 years of age, and African countries may benefit from a largely young population.
2Īlthough uncertainties underlying SARS-CoV-2 disease transmission and severity persist, ongoing analysis of available data suggests that old age and underlying health conditions play a critical role in the severity of disease prognosis. However, infectious disease surveillance and reporting infrastructure remain highly underdeveloped, and COVID-19 testing is limited given the shortage of human resources and appropriate laboratory and surveillance facilities across the continent. To date, African countries have reported lower disease incidence than most other countries, with 3 113 963 confirmed cases and 74 619 deaths as of 13 January 2021 across the continent. 1 The first confirmed COVID-19 case in Africa occurred in Egypt on 14 February 2020. As of 13 January 2021, there have been over 92 096 179 cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 and over 1 972 758 deaths reported globally. On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared the novel SARS-CoV-2 outbreak a pandemic.
This model is not stochastic and case data are modelled from the first 20 or more cases, each behaving as an average case in reality, there are no average cases some individuals are likely to have many contacts, causing multiple infections and others to have very few. Peaks in transmission are likely to occur at different times in different regions, with multiple epicentres. This is a compartmental model and as such has inherent weaknesses, including the possible overestimation of the number of infections as it is assumed people are well mixed, despite many social, physical and geographical barriers to mixing within countries. As such, this will negatively impact on the normal conduct of statistical operations of data collection, processing and dissemination.Ĭlick HERE to read more on the Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Statistical Operations of the Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics.Though the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 through China, Europe and the USA has been well studied, leading to a detailed understanding of its biology and epidemiology, the population and resources for combatting the spread of the disease in Africa greatly differ to those areas and require models specific to this context.įew models that provide estimates for policymakers, donors and aid organisations focused on Africa to plan an effective response to the pandemic threat that optimises the use of limited resources. These restrictions are also a potential possibility in Tanzania depending on the trajectory of COVID-19 infections in future. These have included measures such as: closing national boarders, strict restrictions on social activities and movements and total lockdown. Some world governments have adopted more strict measures to avoid more infections. These measures includes: closing of schools, introducing a fourteen days mandatory quarantine for international arrivals at their own costs, restrictions on international travels, encouraging the practice of social distancing, and restrictions of non essential movements and public gatherings. Due to the outbreak of Corona Virus Disease, 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Government of Tanzania, like many other governments around the global has taken some measures to contain spread of the virus.
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